Predicting where Nvidia’s stock price will be in the next three years is like guessing the next tweet from Elon Musk. It’s intriguing, nerve-wracking, and somehow related to space or chips. Here we are, observing the shifts brought by the changes in trade policy and wondering, whether among those stocks Nvidia will still defy the magnitude or not. As Trump tariffs slam hard across Asian tech corridors, the real questions are not about where exactly Nvidia is heading, rather it’s about if and when it gets there, will we even recognize the technology landscape?
April 2, 2025, might become a viable date for discussion in a business school case. It would be considered as an inflection point when the wheels of global trade found resistance in protectionist policies. An avalanche of U.S tariffs were imposed in the Trump administration, weighted heavily against imports from key trading partners across Asia, including Taiwan and South Korea, important for the tech supply chain. Nvidia will have to weather these challenges with innovation and insulation, from political pressures, economic headwinds, and volatility from investors. For Nvidia, the good news is that semiconductor chips are exempt from the new levies, but that doesn’t mean the chipmaker will escape totally unscathed.
Nvidia, more than a Chipmaker
Nvidia is mostly recognized as the producer of high-end graphics cards and for AI-accelerating GPUs. The company is fabless, it designs chips but gets other third parties like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) to bring those designs to life. Nvidia is truly an example of globalization at work, this could place it as a target of political ire.
Just like other tech giants, Apple and Nike, Nvidia relies on foreign partners to outsource and thus becomes vulnerable to trade friction. The superb management of Nvidia is not letting these events come and ambush them, rather they’re walking towards them bluntly.
Emphasis on American Manufacturing
CEO Jensen Huang announced a strategic shift in March, which is the manufacturing of U.S chips at TSMC’s facility in Arizona. This collaboration will focus on the manufacturing of Nvidia’s next-generation Blackwell AI chips, which is probably the most important product so far. Nvidia could use this to reduce domestic scrutiny and participate in the current administration’s onshore push. However, the supply chain primarily relies upon foreign funding and implementation, specifically from Taiwan. On the other hand, with geopolitical tensions boiling in Taiwan, any rupture in cooperation will send repercussions through Nvidia’s logistics.
Clients in the U.S
About half of Nvidia’s revenues are generated from the United States, and this is not through consumers buying gaming GPUs. Rather, giant tech companies like Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta use Nvidia’s technology. These giants leverage Nvidia’s technology to train large-scale AI models, manage data centers, and advance automation. Therefore, economic pressures might tarnish this silver lining.
Chance of a Recession
With Nvidia’s share down to 30%, the stock appears more like a value play than growth rocket at this point, with a forward (P/E) ratio of 21 that is lower than Nasdaq. As Nvidia’s fourth quarter results were excellent and its net income rose 80% year-on-year, the introduction of Blackwell chips could maintain the momentum. However, it seems like the rest of the economy might just not be ready to leap into the future along with Nvidia.
J.P Morgan reckons that there is a 60% chance of a recession in 2025. This will scare the AI investment cycle, thus putting pressure on large buyers of Nvidia and blocking capital for startups. If funding comes to a halt, the AI hype train would slow down, along with its growth expectations for Nvidia.
Glimpse into Three Years from Now
In an optimistic beyond vision, it seems that Nvidia is well placed to ride the storm today and come out even stronger by 2028. The shift toward domestic chip production is more than symbolic, as it is strategic. If successful, it will usher in an era of tech dominance that will be led by Nvidia. Although, there are still risks of supply chain bottlenecks, regulatory backlash, a looming recession, and the crowded AI space that even large players can trip over. Investors who remain optimistic and are confident in the execution of Nvidia could see today’s drop as an exceptional buying opportunity. Others may prefer to wait and watch.
The company, which has redirected investments into U.S based manufacturing and maintained global client bases is building more than just AI chips, it’s building resilience. In a harsh reality, where trade tensions escalate and the stagnation hits tougher than anticipated, the optimism can fade pretty quickly. Nvidia has always been volatile, but in the next three years, it faces an extraordinary testing storm of adaptability where the recession might collide with its innovation.
